Is computing in 2040 a ticking time bomb for safety, truth, ownership, and accountability?

As technology continues to advance rapidly, there are growing concerns about the potential risks and challenges that computing technologies could pose in the future. A groundbreaking study conducted by cyber security researchers at Lancaster University has offered some alarming insights into these risks and challenges in 2040.

Led by Dr. Charles Weir from the School of Computing and Communications, the team used a Delphi study technique to gather the opinions of 12 esteemed experts in the field. These experts, including chief technology officers, consultant futurists, and academic researchers, were interviewed to forecast how particular technologies may shape our world over the next 15 years.

One of the key concerns highlighted by the experts was the exponential growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI). While acknowledging its tremendous benefits, many experts voiced apprehensions about the potential corner-cutting in the development of safe AI. They highlighted that nation-states driven by competitive advantage might compromise safety measures, potentially leading to incidents involving multiple deaths.

Dr. Charles Weir, the lead researcher of the study, stated, "The possible magnitude of some of the risks forecasted by experts was staggering. While technological advances offer great benefits, we cannot turn a blind eye to the risks. By identifying and understanding potential risks in advance, we can take proactive steps to avoid major problems."

Another significant concern raised by the experts involved the ease with which misinformation can spread in a technologically advanced world. As technology advances, it becomes increasingly difficult for individuals to distinguish truth from fiction, posing significant challenges for democracies. Misleading content propagated by bad actors can undermine trust and destabilize societies.

"We are already witnessing the perilous impact of misinformation on social media networks," explained Dr. Weir. "The experts foresee that technological progress will only amplify these issues, making it much easier for deceptive information to permeate our lives by 2040."

The study also examined other technologies that are anticipated to have varying impacts by 2040. Quantum supercomputing, despite its potential, was forecasted to have a limited impact within the given timeframe. Similarly, most experts dismissed the notion of Blockchain as a significant source of change.

Looking ahead, the experts confidently projected several key developments related to computing:

• By 2040, increased competition between nation-states and big tech companies will likely result in corners being cut in the development of safe AI.
• Quantum computing is not expected to have a substantial impact by 2040, pointing towards a longer timeframe for its integration.
• Ownership of public web assets will be identified and traded through digital tokens by 2040, potentially posing challenges related to accountability and cybersecurity.
• Distinguishing truth from fiction will become increasingly difficult as widely accessible AI technology can generate questionable and misleading content.
• Due to the decentralized nature and complexity of systems, differentiating accidents from criminal incidents will become more challenging by 2040.

In light of these concerning projections, the experts offered potential solutions to mitigate the risks. They suggested that governments should introduce AI purchasing safety principles and enact new laws to regulate AI safety. Additionally, universities could play a vital role by offering courses that combine technical skills with legislation, ensuring professionals are equipped to navigate the complexities of supercomputing.

These thought-provoking forecasts will undoubtedly aid policymakers and technology professionals in making strategic decisions concerning the development and deployment of novel computing technologies. The findings, published in the scholarly journal IEEE Computer under the title "Interlinked Computing in 2040: Safety, Truth, Ownership, and Accountability," emphasize the urgent need for proactive measures to address potential risks associated with supercomputing soon.

As society eagerly embraces the promises of supercomputing, it is crucial to approach these advancements with caution and accountability. Only by fully understanding and preparing for the potential pitfalls can we ensure that the future we create with supercomputing truly benefits humanity.