Watching Waves: From storm-surge predictions to aiding the FBI

Through the dual crises of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, people learned that one of the most powerful tools in a disaster situation is information. From weather conditions and damage to the confusion and chaos that followed the storms’ landfalls, the nation discovered just how tough it was to come by accurate reports of what was happening. Scientists at LSU’s Coastal Studies Institute have a tool that can provide just that. They developed a system that can help provide both real-time knowledge of conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as advanced computer projections of a hurricane or tropical storm’s strength. Greg Stone, the James P. Morgan Distinguished Professor at the Coastal Studies Institute, along with a research staff of a dozen other faculty members and graduate students, has developed the Wave-Current-Surge Information System, or WAVCIS, a string of satellite-linked equipment stations attached to oil-drilling platforms off the Louisiana coast. Each WAVCIS station consists of instruments both above and below the Gulf surface that measure conditions such as air temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction, water temperature, current and tidal flow and the size and frequency of waves. LSU manages eight WAVCIS stations from as far west as Cameron, La., all the way to Valparaiso, Fla., where a new station was recently set up near Eglin Air Force Base. Government agencies and oil companies also maintain stations on other platforms. All of the WAVCIS stations relay their information via satellite uplink to computers at a laboratory in the Coastal Studies Institute, where the data is recorded, processed and analyzed by Stone and his team. “It really is one of the most unique programs in the nation,” said Stone. The measurements are typically taken every few hours but can be relayed from the stations to the lab as frequently as every 30 minutes in times of emergency. Stone and his assistants can also use the information to create computer models and forecasts that may predict the effects of an approaching storm. “This can help us to understand the magnitude of the storm surge Louisiana could be facing from a hurricane,” said Stone. “And that means that the governor and the Office of Emergency Preparedness can know what’s going on.” Stone said that as Hurricane Katrina churned toward the Gulf Coast, WAVCIS stations gave them an early idea of just what was approaching. “When Katrina was three or four days away from landfall, we were already picking up an idea of what the storm surge was going to be like.” Unique According to Stone, the WAVCIS program differs from the way other scientific measurements of the ocean are taken, thanks to the stable base of an oil platform. “It gives you a major advantage for a variety of reasons,” he explained. “You have this huge, stable platform, and there’s a good chance it’s going to still be there after a hurricane. Most measurements are taken from buoys that are going to move up and down with the waves. With this system, we can measure very precisely water level and storm surge.” The system is fitting for Louisiana, a state that is very unique in it’s own right. “Louisiana is very geologically complex,” said Stone. “A lot of wave research is usually done on the East Coast, and it’s done on a sandy beach. Well, Louisiana is very different. The coast is muddy, not sandy. With this system, we can make computer models that do a better job of showing how a storm is going to affect Louisiana.” The southern portion of Louisiana’s below-sea-level altitude also creates different problems in storm conditions, as more areas are flood-prone and require evacuation. With the help of WAVCIS, officials can have a better idea which areas are more likely to be hit by heavy storm-surge activity. “We don’t have the luxury of staying around,” said Stone. “We have decisions to make. If we run these computer models ahead of time, we can get information out sooner to those who need it.” Stone and Xiongping Zhang, a former graduate student who received his Ph.D. in coastal studies from LSU in 2003, began working on WAVCIS in the mid-1990s while doing research on coastal restoration. “We became painfully aware of the fact that we had to get our information to make computer models from hundreds of miles offshore,” said Stone. “To think that conditions aren’t going to change from that point to the coast, that’s a serious assumption.” Stone developed the idea of using some of the approximately 4,000 oil platforms off the Gulf Coast to provide data, and pitched it to then-Louisiana Sen. John Breaux, who helped to secure some initial funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Now the program is funded by 17 different organizations, including the U.S. Navy, Coast Guard and several oil companies. Still, Stone said that his team could always use more help. “I worry that Louisiana has been losing some momentum a year after Katrina,” he said. “It’s not getting any easier to raise money for this program.” He also stressed that not only is hurricane season a yearly threat to the state, it’s one that grows worse with each passing year because of Louisiana’s massive coastal erosion problem. “I tell people each year,” Stone explained. “Louisiana this year is more vulnerable to the devastating impact of a hurricane or tropical storm than it was last year.” Useful WAVCIS has become a system that provides more than hurricane information. According to Stone, the Coast Guard uses the system to help gather information about weather conditions for training exercises and rescues. Oil companies could also use the system in the event of an oil spill to analyze how tides and currents could affect the oil plume. The FBI has even used WAVCIS to help in a murder investigation when a body was discovered in a fishing net off the coast of Grand Isle, La. “They approached us with some theories of how the body came to be out there,” said Stone. “And by going back over the data from the period of time when they figured the body was put in the water, we were able to help them narrow those theories down.” But WAVCIS can be just as useful to the public. Real-time data from the WAVCIS stations can be found on an official Web site: its Web site. “If you’re planning a fishing trip, you can go take a look at what the conditions will be like ahead of time,” said Stone. “This system can do so much in terms of its applicability.”