INDUSTRY

A new supercomputing model re-creating a devastating 1906 San Francisco earthquake gives scientists insight into the next big one. Scientists from the United States Geological Survey and Stanford University released results from a 3D simulation of the quake that rocked the region 100 years ago. Experts today estimate that the colossal earthquake was around 7.9 on the modern magnitude scale. By the end of the first day, the City by the Bay would suffer 26 aftershocks, and would succumb to a raging inferno that would show no mercy to its bewildered citizens for 74 hours. Facing the realization that the future of San Francisco bordered on extinction, the stunned citizens put their faith in a corrupt mayor, who proceeded to execute a campaign of mass deception. San Francisco City Hall after the 1906 Earthquake. (from Steinbrugge Collection of the UC Berkeley Earthquake Engineering Research Center) National Geographic Channel's "The Great Quake" brings to life in high definition this epic story of heroic survival, the terror of catastrophe and political manipulation. Based on personal testimonies of survivors and drawing on present-day experts, "The Great Quake" depicts the calamity that tore San Francisco apart at the seams. Airing Sunday, April 16, 2006, at 8 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT (with an encore at 10 p.m. ET/9 p.m. PT), this world premiere event transports viewers back 100 years to what was the most important and powerful city on the Pacific Coast, often referred to as "The Paris of the West." Through the eyes and real-life personal accounts of devoted nurse Lucy Fisher, celebrated photographer Arnold Genthe, young journalist James Hopper and poor working immigrant William Stehr, viewers witness firsthand the pandemonium that ensued and follow the memorable storylines of these four brave souls. These emotional stories are coupled with commentary from top experts on the 1906 disaster, including authors and historians James Dalessandro and Philip Fradkin, who walk viewers through the calamitous events faced by the residents of San Francisco during those harrowing days. In barely one minute early on April 18, 1906, the beautiful city of San Francisco was reduced to a landscape of death and destruction after the San Andreas Fault triggered a massive earthquake. The tremendous geological forces had barely subsided when a new nightmare was unleashed on the streets - - raging fires. "There were really two stages to the disaster," said Dalessandro. "The earthquake was in itself enormous and San Francisco was badly damaged, but the greatest horror and chaos would soon follow in the form of the worst urban fire in American history." Dozens of fires ignited almost immediately after the quake and burned for three days. The City by the Bay had become a giant tinderbox, and, due to infrastructural damage from the quake, there was scarcely any water to fight the impending firestorm. The desperate situation required desperate action -- use of dynamite to blast a firebreak and create a barrier -- or what was left of San Francisco would be reduced to ashes. "The Great Quake" showcases one of the most heroic firefights of its time. The inferno was finally beaten, but only after destroying 500 city blocks in the heart of this magnificent city and leaving over 200,000 people, more than half of its citizens, homeless. The program also details how the city was betrayed by its inept and corrupt mayor, Eugene Schmitz. As he witnessed the city spiraling into chaos, he must have believed this great catastrophe to be his last chance to redeem his faltering political career. Rushing to rebuild San Francisco and his image, Mayor Schmitz was seemingly driven by the fear that money and business would desert a withering city proven vulnerable to earthquakes. A massive campaign of deceit was orchestrated to conceal the true nature of the tragedy. "The Great Quake" reveals how photographs were retouched to downplay the destruction caused by the quake. City officials referred to the event as the "great fire" rather than the "great earthquake." The official death toll was underestimated at less than 500, even though experts now state that the number of dead reached well into the thousands. And the deception continued even further. The lessons of that tragic April day in 1906 were deliberately and successfully buried. On October 17, 1989, San Francisco received a stark reminder of those lessons and the city's vulnerability. An earthquake, significantly less powerful than its predecessor, struck the city, causing at least $6 billion in damage and claiming the lives of at least 62 people in the Oakland and San Francisco area. "The Great Quake" reminds viewers and emphasizes what today's scientists know to be a fact -- earthquakes come in cycles, and many people are currently living above a ticking time bomb. "A repeat of the 1906 earthquake is essentially inevitable," says Dr. Mark Zoback, professor of geophysics at Stanford University. "It really is a question of when it will happen, not whether it will happen." Additional experts featured and consulted in "The Great Quake" include Pat Buscovich, a structural engineer in the state of California; Tom Siragusa, assistant deputy chief for the San Francisco Fire Department; Dr. Mark Zoback, principal investigator of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth Project; and Dr. Mary Lou Zoback, senior research scientist with the United States Geological Survey Western Earthquake Hazards Team. "The Great Quake" is produced for the National Geographic Channel by Darlow Smithson Productions. Executive producer is Julian Ware; writer is Philip Smith. For NGC, Martha Conboy is executive producer; senior vice president of production is Michael Cascio; executive in charge of production is John B. Ford. For more information, visit its Web site.