VISUALIZATION

RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NC -- The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at MCNC, a national leader in air quality modeling and forecasting, was featured on The Weather Channel, yesterday, May 28, 2002. The three-part special on the new field of numerical air quality forecasting will be televised 12 times throughout the summer during "Your Weather This Evening", which airs nightly at 8pm EDT. Led by Senior Research Meteorologist John McHenry, EMC has developed a real-time forecasting system that provides forecasters with an interactive and directed process for investigating high-resolution computer model forecast fields. These fields are critical to assessing the potential for poor air quality, ozone, excessive precipitation and severe weather conditions. EMC is currently providing output from this model to various states including: Texas, Arkansas, North Carolina, etc. Most of these states then use the information from the system to provide health alerts to their citizens. One such system developed by EMC is featured nightly on WRAL-TV. NC Weatherscope is a system that has become an "integral part of the majority of our shows for jet-stream and precipitation forecasts," stated Greg Fishel, WRAL meteorologist. "It is not just a display, but an integral part of our daily forecast process. This is sophisticated science right in our own backyard!" NC-Weatherscope utilizes a modified version of MM5, a limited-area, terrain-following, high-resolution computer model developed by Pennsylvania State University, in cooperation with the National Center for Atmospheric Research. NC-Weatherscope evolved as a by-product of The Southeast Center for Mesoscale Environmental Prediction (SECMEP), a research consortium that provides high-resolution air quality forecasts for state forecast agencies, federal research efforts, field programs and the media. SECMP was formed in 1998 as a unique partnership between MCNC, North Carolina State University (NCSU), and Capitol Broadcasting Company (WRAL-TV). To forecast air quality, researchers use a coupled model forecasting technique. First, MM5 provides forecast meteorology to the SMOKE (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions) emissions processing system, EMC's open-source emissions modeling software system, for forecasting anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Then both MM5 and SMOKE forecasts are used to drive an atmospheric chemistry model developed by EMC. The model combines the meteorological and emissions data with the chemical reactions that ultimately result in photochemical smog. To accomplish this in real-time, EMC has constructed a unique supercomputing-based parallel processing system that allows concurrent parallel processing of all three models. The algorithm allows any combination of forecast windows within MM5 to be output for driving complex sets of model combinations. The development of this powerful algorithm earned MCNC designation as a National Center of Excellence in Air Quality Forecasting by NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The Weather Channel feature documents NOAA's effort to develop a fully integrated air quality forecast system at the national scale - with EMC helping to lead that effort. "It's a real win for technology at MCNC, because it brings together both research and operational capabilities in a private-public partnership," stated EMC Senior Research Meteorologist and Project Manager John McHenry. WRAL featured the outstanding research and development activities at EMC in observance of National Hurricane Awareness Week, May 19-25, 2002. Hurricane season is a reminder that these storms can devastate our communities, cause billions of dollars in property damage and endanger thousands of human lives. More than 50 million people live along hurricane-prone coastlines in the United States. The coast of North Carolina can expect to receive a tropical storm or a hurricane once every four years. North Carolina's protruding coastline makes it a favorable target for tropical cyclones that curve northward in the western Atlantic Ocean. By improving forecasting tools, techniques and coordination thousands of lives can be saved. For more information on EMC real-time forecasting capabilities, visit www.emc.mcnc.org/projects/SECMEP/index.html.