NC State researchers design simulation tool to predict disease, pest spread

North Carolina State University researchers have developed a supercomputer simulation tool to predict when and where pests and diseases will attack crops or forests, and also test when to apply pesticides or other management strategies to contain them.

“It’s like having a bunch of different Earths to experiment on to test how something will work before spending the time, money, and effort to do it,” said the study’s lead author Chris Jones, a research scholar at North Carolina State University’s Center for Geospatial Analytics.

In the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, researchers reported on their efforts to develop and test the tool, which they called “PoPS,” for the Pest or Pathogen Spread Forecasting Platform. Working with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, they created the tool to forecast any type of disease or pathogen, no matter the location. Credit: Vaclav (Vashek) Petras.

Their supercomputer modeling system works by combining information on climate conditions suitable for the spread of a certain disease or pest with data on where cases have been recorded, the reproductive rate of the pathogen or pest, and how it moves in the environment. Over time, the model improves as natural resource managers add data they gather from the field. This repeated feedback with new data helps the forecasting system get better at predicting future spread, the researchers said.

“We have a tool that can be put into the hands of a non-technical user to learn about disease dynamics and management, and how management decisions will affect spread in the future,” Jones said.

The tool is needed as state and federal agencies charged with controlling pests and crop diseases face an increasing number of threats to crops, trees, and other important natural resources. These pests threaten food supplies and biodiversity in forests and ecosystems.

“The biggest problem is the sheer number of new pests and pathogens that are coming in,” Jones said. “State and federal agencies charged with managing them have an ever-decreasing budget to spend on an ever-increasing number of pests. They have to figure out how to spend that money as wisely as possible.”

Already, researchers have been using PoPS to track the spread of eight different emerging pests and diseases. In the study, they described honing the model to track sudden oak death, a disease that has killed millions of trees in California since the 1990s. A new, more aggressive strain of the disease has been detected in Oregon.

They are also improving the model to track spotted lanternfly, an invasive pest in the United States that primarily infests a certain invasive type of tree known as “tree of heaven.” Spotted lanternfly has been infesting fruit crops in Pennsylvania and neighboring states since 2014. It can attack grape, apple, and cherry crops, as well as almonds and walnuts.

The researchers said that just as meteorologists incorporate data into models to forecast weather, ecological scientists are using data to improve forecasting of environmental events – including pest or pathogen spread.

“There’s a movement in ecology to forecast environmental conditions,” said Megan Skrip, a study co-author and science communicator at the Center for Geospatial Analytics. “If we can forecast the weather, can we forecast where there will be an algal bloom, or what species will be in certain areas at certain times? This paper is one of the first demonstrations of doing this for the spread of pests and pathogens.”

The study, “Iteratively Forecasting Invasions with PoPS and a Little Help From Our Friends,” was published June 3, 2021, in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. It was authored by Chris Jones, Shannon Jones, Anna Petrasova, Vaclav Petras, Devon Gaydos, Megan Skrip, Yu Takeuchi, Kevin Bigsby, and Ross Meentemeyer. It was partially funded by the National Science Foundation as part of the NSF-NIH Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases Program, as well as Google Cloud and NVIDIA.

Lund University in Sweden biologist shows how genomics-informed decision support can help save species from extinction

Researchers in Lund, Copenhagen, and Norwich have shown that harmful mutations present in the DNA play an important – yet neglected – role in the conservation and translocation programs of threatened species.

“Many species are threatened by extinction, both locally and globally. For example, we have lost about ten vertebrate species in Sweden in the last century. However, all these species occur elsewhere in Europe, which means that they could be reintroduced into Sweden. Our computer simulations show how we could theoretically maximize the success of such reestablishments”, says Bengt Hansson, a biologist at Lund University. The middle spotted woodpecker has disappeared from Sweden, while the European fire-bellied toad has been reintroduced. (Photos: Wikimedia Commons)

In a new study published in Science, the researchers investigated which individuals might be most suited for translocation to new populations. To date, conservation geneticists have opted to select the most genetically variable individuals. However, the authors argue that is important to consider what type of genetic variation is being moved around. Using supercomputer simulations, they showed that harmful mutations present in the genome of translocated individuals can cause problems in future generations. This so-called “mutation load” could jeopardize the viability of the new population in the long run and eventually led to extinction.

According to Hansson and van Oosterhout, a geneticist at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, who led the study, the best choice is to exclude individuals with many harmful mutations while selecting individuals from multiple different source populations.

“Active translocation of animals between localities is sometimes the last option available to conservation biologists. By carefully selecting individuals based on their low mutation load, we can minimize the loss of fitness that is normally associated with inbreeding in small populations”, says Bengt Hansson.

Huge advances have been made in DNA sequencing technologies, and the whole genomes of individuals can now be sequenced for relatively little costs. This opens up new possibilities to improve the conservation management of threatened species.

“For many species of mammals and birds, we now know which mutations are harmful. Similar mutations are also found in humans, so we understand what they do, and hence, we know what to look out for when analyzing the sequence data of those species. The advantage of using DNA sequencing is that we can see these mutations in the genome, even if an individual carries just a single copy of the mutant gene. This means we can select against those bad mutations even before they cause a problem. Our computer model shows that at least theoretically, this ensures the best probability for population survival. This could help conservation managers in picking the optimal individuals of a threatened species for translocation into a new habitat”, says van Oosterhout.

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German theoretical chemist shows how quantum dots can 'talk' to each other

So-called quantum dots are a new class of materials with many applications. Quantum dots are realized by tiny semiconductor crystals with dimensions in the nanometre range. The optical and electrical properties can be controlled through the size of these crystals. As QLEDs, they are already on the market in the latest generations of TV flat screens, where they ensure particularly brilliant and high-resolution color reproduction. However, quantum dots are not only used as "dyes", they are also used in solar cells or as semiconductor devices, right up to computational building blocks, the qubits, of a quantum supercomputer.

Now, a team led by Dr. Annika Bande at HZB has extended the understanding of the interaction between several quantum dots with an atomistic view in a theoretical publicationThe illustration shows two quantum dots "communicating" with each other by exchanging light.

Annika Bande heads the "Theory of Electron Dynamics and Spectroscopy" group at HZB and is particularly interested in the origins of quantum physical phenomena. Although quantum dots are extremely tiny nanocrystals, they consist of thousands of atoms with, in turn, multiples of electrons. Even with supercomputers, the electronic structure of such a semiconductor crystal could hardly be calculated, emphasizes the theoretical chemist, who recently completed her habilitation at Freie Universität. "But we are developing methods that describe the problem approximately," Bande explains. "In this case, we worked with scaled-down quantum dot versions of only about a hundred atoms, which nonetheless feature the characteristic properties of real nanocrystals."

With this approach, after a year and a half of development and in collaboration with Prof. Jean Christophe Tremblay from the CNRS-Université de Lorraine in Metz, we succeeded in simulating the interaction of two quantum dots, each made of hundreds of atoms, which exchange energy with each other. Specifically, we have investigated how these two quantum dots can absorb, exchange and permanently store the energy controlled by light. A first light pulse is used for excitation, while the second light pulse induces storage.

In total, we investigated three different pairs of quantum dots to capture the effect of size and geometry. We calculated the electronic structure with the highest precision and simulated the electronic motion in real-time at femtosecond resolution (10-15 s).

The results are also very useful for experimental research and development in many fields of application, for example for the development of qubits or to support photocatalysis, to produce green hydrogen gas by sunlight. "We are constantly working on extending our models towards even more realistic descriptions of quantum dots," says Bande, "e.g. to capture the influence of temperature and environment."