Tyler O'Neal, Staff Editor SYSTEMS

Real-world flight data shows continued need for social distancing

Current vaccination programs alone will have a limited effect in stopping the second wave of COVID infections in the US, according to a study conducted by scientists from Reykjavik University in Iceland, University of Lyon, University of Southern Denmark, and University of Naples Federico II, and published in the Nature Group journal Scientific Reports today. The findings suggest that strict social distancing and other non-pharmaceutical methods are still necessary to end the ongoing second wave in the US and prevent a new one from rising.

The study fed real-world data on human mobility into a mathematical model previously used to predict the second wave of COVID in the US. As a proxy for general human mobility between regions in the US, the authors use data from the OpenSky Network, a non-profit association that provides open access to real-world air traffic control data for research purposes. The mathematical model, previously developed by the authors, was first tested and calibrated using data on the pandemic's progression in the first wave. Here, deploying the model on flight-control data, they show that given current rates of mobility in the US and the rate of vaccination, the vaccination campaign alone will not stop the ongoing wave of infections. Dr Anna Sigridur Islind and Dr Maria Oskarsdottir used real-world flight data to show that there is continued need for social distancing to curb the spread of COVID in the US. CREDIT Dr. Islind

Dr Anna Sigridur Islind and Dr Maria Oskarsdottir, assistant professors in the Department of Computer Science at Reykjavik University, led the work with the OpenSky Data. "Our analysis clearly demonstrates that continued vigilance is needed regarding social distancing and other non-pharmaceutical methods in the US, since not everyone can be vaccinated at once and because there is a considerable time lag from vaccination to immunity," Dr Islind said.

"Our results underscore the importance of using real-world data on human mobility relating to the pandemic and to inform public health strategies. This is especially important in a pandemic as complex as COVID and that has had such an uneven public health response, with huge variability in vaccination rates, social distancing regulations, and other measures. The flight-control data is very useful, as it comprises real-world information about rates of interstate travel and so provides a valuable broader view of human mobility on a large scale," Dr Oskarsdottir added. Dr Anna Sigridur Islind and Dr Maria Oskarsdottir used real-world flight data to show that there is continued need for social distancing to curb the spread of COVID in the US. CREDIT Golli

Chinese scientists forecast a 1% Hubble parameter estimation from LISA-Taiji gravitational wave observatory network

Tyler O'Neal, Staff Editor SYSTEMS

The Hubble parameter is one of the central parameters in modern cosmology. Their values inferred from the late-time observations are systematically higher than those from the early-time measurements by about 10%. This is called the "Hubble tension". To come to a robust conclusion, independent probes with accuracy at percent levels are crucial. With the self-calibration by the theory of general relativity, gravitational waves from compact binary coalescence open a completely novel observational window for Hubble parameter determination. Hence, it can shed some light on the Hubble tension. Depends on whether being associated with electromagnetic counterparts or not, gravitational wave events can be categorized into bright sirens and dark sirens. The future space-borne gravitational wave observatory network, such as the LISA-Taiji network, will be able to measure the gravitational wave signals in the Millihertz bands with unprecedented accuracy. This advantage could help the measurement of the Hubble constant. Averaged event number in 1-year, 3-year and 5-year observation time. CREDIT ©Science China Press

A group of Chinese scientists from Beijing and Shenzhen forecasts the ability to constrain the Hubble parameter by using GW sirens data from the future space-borne gravitational-wave observatories, such as LISA (ESA/NASA space mission) and Taiji (Chinese space project). The signals are generated by the inspirals and mergers of the massive black hole binary. Astronomers believe each galaxy host a central massive black hole, whose mass is about one part per thousand of their bulge mass. However, there are outliers. These galaxies just experienced a very violent collision with their neighbors. In the long history of the universe, these galaxy merger events happened frequently and will trigger star formation. Besides that, the central massive black holes associated with the galaxies will also merge with each other and emit significant GW radiation in the very final phase of coalescence. There is a time delay between the massive black hole merger and the galaxy merger. In the view of the cosmic time scale, this delay is an instant. However, from the point of view of a human lifetime, this delay is about a million years. Hence, some galaxies will host two or three massive black holes. If the separation of these massive black holes is less than 0.001 parsec, the gravitational wave emission will dominate the radiation transfer process and drive the hardening of the black hole binaries. Thanks to the excellent sensitivity of space gravitational wave observatories, we will be able to measure this tiny signal. And more importantly, this gravitational wave signal carries fruitful cosmological information.

By including several statistical and instrumental noises, the Chinese team shows that "within 5 years operation time, the LISA-Taiji network is able to constrain the Hubble parameter within 1% accuracy, and possibly beats the scatters down to 0.5% or even better". Besides of that, they also calculate the averaged event numbers for different massive black hole formation models and several observation times. After 5-year network observation, for the optimistic heavy seed model, the average event number with the Hubble parameter accuracy better than 1% could reach 0.9, and its 95% confidence interval will up-cross unity. "We will very probably capture one gold or diamond event after 5-year network observation." the scientists forecast.

See the article: Renjie Wang, Wen-Hong Ruan, Qing Yang, Zong-Kuan Guo, Rong-Gen Cai, Bin Hu Hubble parameter estimation via dark sirens with the lisa-taiji network Natl Sci Rev https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwab054

What is the true cost to companies of IT security?

Tyler O'Neal, Staff Editor SYSTEMS

The research project led by the University of Göttingen in Germany develops an assessment method of information technology security for businesses

How can companies evaluate whether specific measures taken will strengthen their Information Technology (IT) security? How can they find out what the real costs to their business will be? Researchers are addressing these questions in their research collaboration "Processor-Informed Economic Evaluation and Selection of IT Security Measures" (ProBITS), led by the University of Göttingen. The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has funded the project for three years with a total of around 1.4 million euros.

Due to the constantly changing level of threat, whether due to cyber-attacks or new legal requirements, companies are increasingly required to implement complex bundles of different computer programs and other measures to ensure IT security. "In practice, we see that it is not only costly to implement such measures: in fact, as we have observed, these measures have a significant impact on everyday business. They can lead to business processes taking longer and can drive up costs. In addition, they can make business processes more complex and thus less flexible when they have to suddenly adapt to a new situation," explains Professor Simon Trang, Junior Professor for Information Security and Compliance at the University of Göttingen. Classic evaluation models of investment costing, such as the Return on Security Investment, fall short when it comes to evaluating other business costs, apart from the immediate financial impact of IT security measures. In addition, companies often do not have the relevant data on how vulnerable they really are to cyber-attacks and how serious the damage is likely to be in the event of an attack. "In small and medium-sized enterprises, there is usually no dedicated employee for IT security, and there is often a lack of knowledge and experience regarding IT security," says Trang.

The ProBITS team aims to develop a scalable method that companies can use to economically evaluate and select IT security measures. The focus will be on the business process: "Companies should be able to include the effects on the process, which are currently difficult to calculate, in their evaluation," says Trang. "We want to detect the barriers to the introduction and use of IT security measures and reduce possible obstacles. The project thus makes a significant contribution to increasing IT security while not ignoring other business pressures."

Partners in the ProBITS project are: University of Halle-Wittenberg, msu solutions GmbH, and Rezept-prüfstelle Duderstadt GmbH. There is also a sub-project - "ProBITS made simple" - led by the University of Göttingen for the development of the ProBITS method. The focus of the sub-project is to identify obstacles to the introduction of IT security measures and to support companies in introducing the ProBITS method. The BMBF is funding the sub-project with around 486,000 euros.